Rayo Vallecano are just two steps away from realizing their dream of playing in a European final. Strasbourg travel to Vallecas for the first leg of the Conference League semi-finals, with both teams eager to take a significant step toward glory.
Rayo Vallecano are unwilling to wake from the marvelous dream that this Conference League campaign has become. Íñigo Pérez’s side have reached the semi-finals, and only one more hurdle remains before they can experience the first European final in their history. This is only their second continental participation, and their first earned through sporting merit—having entered the 2000-01 UEFA Cup via a fair play spot rather than qualification. The Madrid-based outfit have been remarkably consistent in the tournament, suffering just two defeats, at times when they could afford to lose. After finishing fifth in the league phase, which spared them a preliminary knockout round before the Round of 16, the team only fell to Samsunspor and AEK in the respective second legs of the Round of 16 and quarter-finals, after having secured enough of a lead in the first legs. Rayo arrive with high morale after coming from 3-1 down to draw with Real Sociedad, although they are weakened by the absence of Álvaro García.
Strasbourg also ended their last match with an extra boost of confidence, overturning a 2-0 deficit against Lorient to win 3-2, following two consecutive defeats. The French side sit eighth in Ligue 1 with 41 points, far from the sixth place (12 points behind). Consequently, this competition represents their only route to return to continental football next season. They are a formidable opponent, having finished top of the league phase—only a draw against Jagiellonia Bialystok prevented a perfect record. In the remaining matchdays, they beat Slovan Bratislava, Häcken, Crystal Palace, Aberdeen, and Breidablik. In the knockout rounds, they eliminated Rijeka (2-1, 1-1) and Mainz 05, overturning a 2-0 first-leg deficit with a resounding 4-0 home victory. Notably, they are without the injured Joaquín Panichelli, the goalscorer who recently suffered a cruciate ligament rupture.
Vallecas Holds Firm
Rayo have turned Vallecas into an almost impregnable fortress in this competition. They were the best home side in the league phase, winning all matches against Skhendija (2-0), Lech Poznan (3-2), and Drita (3-0). Only Samsunspor’s visit ended with a result other than a home victory (0-1), but that was allowed by the context after Rayo had won 3-1 in Turkey. In the quarter-finals, they celebrated another win in front of their fans with a 3-0 victory over AEK.
Our favoritism towards the home side is also based on Strasbourg’s inconsistency in April, during which they have lost three of their six matches across the Coupe de France, Conference League, and Ligue 1. They fell in the first leg of the quarter-finals against Mainz 05, in Ligue 1 to Rennes, and in the Coupe de France semi-finals against Nice. They recovered a few days ago, although they found themselves 2-0 down against Lorient before eventually winning 3-2.